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2026 season · Week 10 projection
Projected standings show the 8,000-run ESPN baseline. Pick any franchise in the simulator below to test weekly scoring shifts, win-out paths, and locked matchups. Badges show odds movement since Week 9.
Week 10 in progress.
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ET. Records through Week 9 final. Week 10 is in progress (Thursday night).. Week 9 is final and already in the record. Week 10 is in progress, so the simulator uses the Thursday live score and the updated ESPN projection and does not count the game yet. This table is the simulator baseline: ESPN setting, nothing locked, 8,000 runs, seed 7. Rank is average finish. Top 4 over 14 weeks make the playoffs.
#1 seed 94%
#1 seed 6%
#1 seed <1%
#1 seed 0%
#1 seed <1%
#1 seed 0%
#1 seed 0%
#1 seed 0%
#1 seed 0%
#1 seed 0%
Same model as the playoff simulator (data/playoff-model.json): ESPN projection plus each team's bias, normal noise, 8,000 seeded runs. Counted games, including final Week 8 and Week 9, are not simulated again. Week 10 projections and current points are the Nov 13 Thursday matchup pull. A tie adds no win. Rank is average finish. The simulator changes when the strength slider moves or a game is locked.
Maye i give you a blowj0b playoff odds for this scenario: 54.4%. 8,000 simulations.
Focus franchise
This scenario
54.4%
Nothing locked
Every game modeled
54.4%
No results locked
Win out
100.0%
9-5, other locks kept
Win all 5
11.1%
Product of remaining odds
Playoff odds if Maye i give you a blowj0b wins each remaining game in sequence while subsequent weeks are still simulated.
Final record distribution for Maye i give you a blowj0b with nothing locked. 8-6 gets in 97.3% of the time. 7-7 gets in 35.7%.
179.26–89.36. Provisional, Week 8 not final. Counted in current record.
129.06–93.6. Provisional, Week 9 not final. Counted in current record.
Proj 150.2–116.3 · margin +33.7 · win 90%
Proj 89.2–71.0 · margin +18.2 · win 68%
Proj 131.5–128.9 · margin +2.6 · win 53%
Proj 124.6–124.3 · margin +0.3 · win 50%
Proj 130.1–114.0 · margin +16.1 · win 67%
58.1% if Bibi's Boys wins · 47.1% if Dimes McSorley wins
56.3% if Smert Fellas wins · 44.7% if Dimes McSorley wins
Maye i give you a blowj0b has 1079.48 points, 5th in points for. Provisional, Week 10 not final. In this scenario, 30.0% of sims end in a wins tie on the 4/5 cut line that includes Maye i give you a blowj0b, and Maye i give you a blowj0b wins 59.6% of those.
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14